Xianming Chen
Based on the weather data of the November and December 2023, stripe rust in the 2024 wheat growing season is predicted to be in the range of severe epidemic level (40-60% yield loss on susceptible varieties). Using different forecast models based on the 2023 November and December weather data, yield loss of highly susceptible winter wheat varieties in the 2024 crop season is predicted to be in the range of 29 to 54% with an average of 42%. The predicted severe epidemic level is attributed to the relatively high temperatures in November and December. Based on such level of potential yield loss on susceptible wheat, commercially grown varieties are predicted to have 0 to 27% yield losses depending upon the level of resistance or susceptibility of individual varieties. Based on the forecast, fields grown with moderately susceptible (MS, ratings 6 and 7) or susceptible (S, ratings 8 and 9) winter wheat varieties may need the early fungicide application at the time of herbicide application. Resistant (ratings 1 and 2) and moderately resistant (ratings 3 and 4) spring wheat varieties should be selected to plant, and variety with MS and S ratings (6 – 9) should be avoided. See the Seed Buying Guide of wheat varieties or the stripe rust ratings below (Table 1 and Table 2).
Table 1. Stripe rust ratings of winter wheat varieties
Table 2. Stripe rust ratings of spring wheat varieties
